I figured about a 2:16 was needed for an honest FKT on this route based on it being along the Louisville Lovin' the Hills 50k (or at least 99% of it) and looking at the time stamps from the 2017 second fastest time and adjusting for there not being a Strava record for the 2013 50k course record.
The FKT starts at the end of the parking lot while the Strava segment starts at the road. Previous Strava segment leader for this route was 2:31:26.
I took 1 handheld bottle with me filled with water. Lucky to have a relatively cool day for this time of year and trail conditions that were near perfect.